Consultancy for the Endline Evaluation of RAPID+ Program

BackgroundThe Millennium Water Alliance (MWA) is a permanent global alliance of leading humanitarian and private organisations that convenes opportunities and partnerships, accelerates learning and effective models, and influences the WASH space by leveraging the expertise and reach of its members and partners to scale quality, sustained WASH services. Founded in the year 2002, MWA seeks to advance high standards for program quality, transparency and accountability and work with its members, governments, communities, private sector partners and other key stakeholders to bring to scale effective and sustainable water, sanitation, and hygiene education solutions. MWA therefore sees WASH beyond a service but as a platform for advocacy, social enterprise, economic empowerment, and gender justice.The Resilient Arid Lands Partnership for Integrated Development Plus (RAPID+) program is a five-year program running from November 2021 – October 2026 convened and led by MWA. The program has primary funding from the Swiss Agency for Development and Corporation (SDC) and contributions and investment funds from private sector actors, four facilitating partners including CARE Kenya, the Catholic Relief Services (CRS), Food for the Hungry (FH) and World Vision (WV) and five hosting county governments. RAPID+ aims to improve access to water and rangeland services for 200,000 people in the five counties of Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Turkana, and Wajir counties. RAPID+ activities are being implemented using a gender transformative lens and systems development approaches. These two aspects are expected to embed sustainability and inclusivity in the program.Project Goal and ObjectivesThe goal of RAPID+ is to improve access to safe and sustainably managed water and rangelands in RAPID+ counties to contribute to resilient livelihoods for communities in a peaceful environment. The program is contributing to this goal through two outcomes: (1) Pastoralist communities have increased access to sustainable and safe water for multiple uses benefiting men, women, and youth, and (2) Pastoralist communities have improved access to safe and ecologically healthy rangeland resources that promote greater integrity, social cohesion, and gender equity.The RAPID+ Theory of Change states that “If we improve access to sustainable and safe water for multiple uses that benefit men, women and youth and also improve access to safe and ecologically healthy rangeland resources that promote greater integrity, social cohesion and gender equity through strong public, private and community institutions; then communities in the target areas will have increased income, gender equity and empowerment, enhanced livestock systems, a more peaceful environment, conserved ecosystems and improved health status; and therefore, resilient livelihoods that promote peaceful cohesion and gender equity will be achieved.”Summary of Program AchievementsOver the past four years, the RAPID+ programme has demonstrated strong performance against its original targets across the five counties. The programme has met its targets for transboundary rangeland management committees, establishing 31 committees against a target of 26, and reached 232,821 community members—surpassing the target of 200,000 women, men, and youth. Targets for water management committees were fully achieved, with all 45 committees established as planned. Progress against institutional strengthening targets was also substantial, with 10 out of 11 Water Resource User Associations supported and 396 county government front-line officers reached against a target of 400, reflecting near-complete achievement in these areas.More importantly from a systems change perspective, the program has created mind-set shifts in private sector participation with all stakeholders (private, government, INGO and donor) involved in the program. Through working on public–private engagement, locally led models, and market-responsive approaches, the program has successfully mobilised significant private-sector co-investment in service delivery. RAPID+ has also introduced and tested innovative models, ranging from PAYGO irrigation and enhanced O&M financing mechanisms to community-based insurance schemes, that deepen sustainability in the water sector. In parallel, rangeland value chains, such as gum Arabic, honey, and fodder production have grown, contributing to diversified livelihoods and stronger local markets. These achievements are articulated below.* RAPID+ has formally partnered with 11 private-sector actors, including Acacia Water, Aqua Clara, Boreal Light, Davis & Shirtliff, Epicenter Africa, Global Communities, Maji Milele, Solargen, Virridy, Coca‑Cola Foundation, and Alseyee Bio. Engagements have ranged from supporting the establishment of regional branches in Northern Kenya (e.g. Maji Milele) to piloting telemetric monitoring of borehole functionality (e.g. Virridy). * Through these partnerships, RAPID+ has leveraged an estimated USD 2 million in private-sector investment for water and rangeland interventions, including contributions from both formally engaged partners and informal private-sector actors operating at county level. * The programme has piloted three models to strengthen private-sector engagement in the water sector: the Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) irrigation model; the Drought Resilience Impact Platform – Fixing Uptime Now and Decision Improvement (DRIP FUNDI) model; and the Diocese of Lodwar Insurance Scheme to support the operation and maintenance of water systems. * One of the operation and maintenance models developed under RAPID+, DRIP FUNDI, facilitated 63 borehole repairs across the five programme counties in 2025, contributing to improved service reliability and community-level climate resilience. * In Turkana County**, nine rural water points** have been transferred to the rural water utility, Turkana Rural Water Company (TURWASCO), demonstrating progress in operationalizing rural water service delivery models. * Through targeted institutional-strengthening support, Marsabit Water and Sewerage Company improved its standing in the Water Services Regulatory Board league tables, rising from 87th to 78th position- a 10-place improvement in water service delivery performance. This upward movement signals strengthened financial and operational management at the utility and enhances its credibility with funders and partners, positioning it closer to long-term commercial viability. * The program supported the generation of USD 44,830 in revenue from rangeland products, including gum arabic and honey, strengthening livelihoods in rural communities across the RAPID+ counties.Purpose of the EvaluationThe Endline Evaluation will assess the outcomes of RAPID+ and the attribution, causality, and contribution of program interventions over its five-year implementation period from November 1, 2021, to April 30, 2026. The period between May 2026- October 2026 is focused on program close-out activities and hence will not be included during the evaluation.Evaluation Questions / ObjectivesThe evaluation will have four key objectives outlined below:1. Assessing the relevance, coherence, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, and sustainability of the program based on the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Criteria. 2. Establishing unintended and emergent outcomes and systemic shifts generated by the program through outcome harvesting. 3. The evaluation will inform MWA and its partners if the approaches employed successfully met the program’s goal of expanding sustainable access to water and rangelands services through systems development approaches. 4. The evaluation is expected to inform future programming which will focus on improving water access for inclusive economic development in Northeastern Kenya. The consultant is expected to highlight opportunities and pathways (based on their evaluation of RAPID+) of leveraging water for economic development.The Endline Evaluation will provide conclusions and recommendations on the following questions:1. Relevance: To what extent did the RAPID+ design respond to beneficiaries, and partner/institution needs, policies, and priorities. 2. Coherence: Were the result indicators for the RAPID+ program and their means of verification adequate? What possible adjustments would be recommended in future programming? 3. Effectiveness: To what degree have the program activities met the intended outcomes and results set out in the logical framework? 4. Efficiency: To what extent did RAPID+ deliver results in an economical and timely way? 5. Impact: To what extent did RAPID+ generate significant positive or negative, intended, or unintended, higher-level effects? 6. Sustainability: To what extent will the net benefits of the intervention continue. 7. Gender mainstreaming: To what extent was the program gender transformative? 8. Synergies: To what extent were synergies achieved with other activities implemented by other Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) as well as with local initiatives? 9. To what extent has the program embraced Systems Development (SD), Private Sector Engagement (PSE) and Development (PSD) in water and rangelands service delivery? 10. Program design: Which program design components need to be improved, changed and or omitted in similar programming in the future?Scope of work and Evaluation MethodologyThe endline evaluation shall;a) Cover the entire project duration until start of the evaluation (November 2021- April 2026) while also taking into consideration ongoing activities.(b) Cover all the program target counties- Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit, Isiolo and Turkana.(c) Cover other program partners including county governments, implementing partners, private partners among others.The consultant shall propose the methodology to be used to carry out the review that adopts a consultative and participatory approach. The proposed methodology should sufficiently address the preliminary questions outlined within the ToR, specifying the review approaches, questions, methods of data collection and analysis that will be undertaken. It should encompass a combination of both qualitative and quantitative methods. The consultant would be required to align the end-line approach with what was used in the MTR for ease of comparison.This evaluation will adopt a quasi-experimental research design. It will also involve a mixed methods approach integrating both quantitative and qualitative data. With this in mind, the evaluation team is expected to propose an evaluation methodology and analysis tools that guarantee the highest degree of rigor to ensure credible findings. Qualitative data will be collected from diverse stakeholders, individuals, and groups in the community. Qualitative data-gathering procedures will entail but are not limited to Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with RAPID+ facilitating partners, private sector partners, Borehole Rapid Response Teams (BRRTs), Borehole Operators, households, and County Government Water Department and Rangelands staff among others. The consultant will identify the respondents in the exercise purposively.Data collected should be linked with the program’s log frame to answer specific evaluation questions linked to outcomes and outputs and to provide a platform from which to understand systemic, behaviour and actors’ changes over time. The project is targeting 200,000 beneficiaries, of whom 150,000 should be rural, peri-urban and urban dwellers with access to water for multiple uses, and 50,000 should pastoralists accessing improved rangelands and rangeland management services. The consultant needs to propose a clear sampling methodology and size to be employed in the evaluation. This approach needs to be clearly articulated within the proposal submission. The program sites will purposively be selected by the project implementing partners in each County, in consultation with MWA Kenya. Data management, validation and dissemination shall be proposed by the consultant.Roles and responsibilities1. Millennium Water Alliance (MWA)The MWA together will collaborate with the selected consultant to undertake the following roles:* Provide consultant with background documents, reports and available secondary data for review. * Host an inception session for the consultant and implementing partners to agree on timelines. * Organize validation and dissemination workshops for the presentation of preliminary findings to the program stakeholders. * Review and provide input on all consultant’s deliverables. * Ensure smooth flow of consultancy engagement processes including contractual obligations. * Share the final evaluation report with all key stakeholders, including key program staff, partners, donor representatives, and national and county governments. * Organize a reflection session to support program close-out activities with all RAPID+ stakeholders.1. Facilitating partnersThe roles of the facilitating partners shall include the following:* Coordinate with the consultant to plan for logistics and support during the enumerators’ training. * Facilitate the consultant to successfully engage with target communities and stakeholders by ensuring community sensitisation and mobilization of sampled respondents. * Scheduling Key Informants with the County Government and other required KIIs. * Provide supervision support during the field data collection1. ConsultantThe roles of the consultant(s) shall include the following.* Conduct desk review of relevant program documents and other secondary sources. * Develop an inception report, detailing the agreed upon study design, methodologies for data collection and analysis, indicators, data-gathering tools, work plan schedule and budget to carry out the assignment, in consultation with MWA. * Develop or refine quantitative and qualitative data-gathering tools in consultation with MWA. * Recruit and pay enumerators in each county. * Plan and coordinate quantitative and qualitative data collection. * Conduct training for the data collection teams including pre‐testing of data collection tools. * Work with the facilitating partners in evaluation planning and logistics. * Review, clean and analyze collected data. * Document indicators progress from baseline and mid-term values to inform of progress and give related recommendations. * Draft and end-line report capturing findings and recommendations. * Present preliminary findings and draft report to program stakeholders for validation. * Incorporate input from program stakeholders and develop and submit the final End-line evaluation reports (full and summary versions). * Produce county-specific reports (Maximum 5 pages) * Arrange and pay for travel, accommodation and per diem during the assignment. * Facilitate the program reflection session during close out. * Provide enumerators with tablets/mobile phones during data collection.Delivera…