Call for Consultancy Service on the Development of an Impact-Based Forecasting and Trigger Mechanism for Flood Anticipatory Action in Bangladesh

1. CONTEXT1. CONTRACTING ORGANIZATIONHumanity & Inclusion - Handicap International (HI) is an independent and impartial aid organization created in 1982 working in situations of poverty and exclusion, conflict and disaster. The organization works alongside persons with disabilities and vulnerable populations, taking action and bearing witness in order to respond to their essential needs, improve their living conditions and promote respect for their dignity and fundamental rights. HI is presently active in about sixty countries. HI Bangladesh Programme (locally known as Handicap International) is requesting the services described in these Terms of Reference (ToR).1. PROGRAMME CONTEXTHI has been working in Bangladesh since 1997 to improve the protection and quality of life of vulnerable individuals, including persons with disabilities, to promote their rights, and to support their participation in society. Since 2017, HI has also been providing assistance to thousands of Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (Rohingya) fleeing neighbouring Myanmar. HI’s current operations are primarily centred in the northern (Kurigram) and southern (Cox’s Bazar) parts of the country.Our teams deliver services and support across several thematic areas, including Health and Rehabilitation, Protection and MHPSS (Mental Health and Psychosocial Support), Inclusive Humanitarian Action, Humanitarian Logistics, Inclusive Education, and Livelihoods. HI also engages in Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation, empowering vulnerable communities in disaster-prone and environmentally fragile areas to manage disaster risks, strengthen their adaptive capacities, and influence disaster and climate governance. HI Bangladesh is funded by a range of institutional and private donors.1. RATIONALE FOR THE SERVICE REQUESTEDBangladesh has made significant progress in flood forecasting and early warning through the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC), the Department of Disaster Management (DDM), and the development of Anticipatory Action Protocols (AAPs) under established legal and institutional frameworks. The country also benefits from an active Anticipatory Action Technical Working Group under the Humanitarian Coordination Task Team (HCTT). Despite these advancements, existing flood forecasting systems have limited capacity to translate hazard information into locally relevant, impact-based forecasts, and local Disaster Management Committees often face challenges in interpreting forecast information for timely decision-making. Gaps also remain in ensuring inclusive early warning and anticipatory action, particularly for persons with disabilities and last-mile populations.In this context, HI Bangladesh is implementing the project “Inclusive and locally led action on climate-induced disasters in Bangladesh” (October 2025–November 2027), funded by the L’Oréal Foundation. The project aims to strengthen inclusive Anticipatory Action across 3 Unions in Kurigram district, by integrating impact-based flood forecasting with Early Warning Systems and local preparedness planning. To support this objective, HI seeks to engage a qualified consultant or team of consultants to develop a locally led, impact-based flood forecasting model and trigger mechanism that will inform the design of anticipatory action protocols in the project locations.2. DESCRIPTION OF THE REQUIRED SERVICE PROVISION1. OVERALL AND SPECIFIC OBJECTIVESThe main objective of this consultancy is to develop a technically robust Impact-Based Flood Forecasting (IBF) model and an associated forecast-based trigger mechanism to support anticipatory action in the project locations. The consultancy will translate flood hazard forecasts into probabilistic estimates of impacts on people and livelihoods and define impact thresholds, probability thresholds, and trigger logic to support evidence-based, pre-agreed activation of anticipatory action.The consultancy will focus on the technical design, testing, and documentation of the IBF model and trigger mechanism. Final feasibility, Action selection and full AAP developmentwill be coordinated by HI and validated with partners and communities.Specific objectives1. To translate flood forecasts into expected impacts on people and livelihoods by developing a locally relevant impact-based flood forecasting model. 2. To define and test impact and probability thresholds that indicate when forecasted flood impacts are severe and likely enough to justify the activation of anticipatory action. 3. To design clear and objective trigger rules that link forecasted impacts and probabilities to the activation of anticipatory action, supported by testing and documentation of uncertainty. 4. SCOPE OF WORKIn consultation with HI and its implementing partner, the assignment will include the following work:Activity 1: Technical review and stocktake of flood forecasting systems and triggersThe consultant will conduct a technical review to inform IBF model design, including:* Identification of relevant technical data providers (forecasting and hydrological institutions); * Review of existing flood forecasts (seasonal and short-term), including spatial and temporal resolution, lead times, update frequency, uncertainty, and data gaps relevant to IBF and trigger design, as well as existing flood warning products in relation with trigger timing, thresholds, and forecast–warning alignment. * Review of historical flood data (extent, depth, duration, frequency) for Kurigram District and the nine target wards over the past 20 years, including forecast performance where available. Ward-level differentiation may rely on grouped or typological approaches where data granularity is insufficient. * Stocktake of existing flood AAPs and trigger methodologies used by other AA actors in Bangladesh, with a focus on technical trigger design approaches. * Deliverable: Technical Review & Stocktake ReportActivity 2 : Impact-based flood risk analysis to support modellingUsing secondary datasets and/or outputs from Community Risk Assessments (CRA) provided by HI, the consultant will:* Conduct impact-based flood risk analysis and mapping for the nine target wards; Ward-level differentiation may rely on grouped or typological approaches where data granularity is insufficient. * Develop technical risk and impact indices to support spatial differentiation and model calibration. * Cross-analyse historical flood impacts and vulnerability data to define ward-level impact thresholds (“danger levels”) for modelling purposes, drawing on available disability, gender, and age-relevant data where feasible, and clearly documenting data gaps and limitations. * Document assumptions, data limitations, and uncertainty. * Deliverable: Flood Risk and Impact Analysis Report (technical, modelling-focused)Activity 3: Development of an Impact-Based Flood Forecasting (IBF) modelThe consultant will:* Develop an IBF model that translates forecasted flood hazards into probabilistic estimates of agreed impact indicators, based on exposure and vulnerability data, including disability, gender, and age relevant considerations where supported by available data. * Define severity categories suitable for trigger calibration. * Clearly document model structure, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations, and false-alarm risks. * Deliverable: Technical IBF Model DocumentationActivity 4: Definition and testing of impact and probability thresholdsThe consultant will:* Define impact thresholds and probability thresholds indicating when forecasted impacts are sufficiently severe and likely to justify anticipatory action, based on parameters agreed with HI; * Test thresholds by applying them to past flood events (hindcasting) and conducting sensitivity analyses to assess false alarm and missed event risks. * Deliverable: Threshold Definition & Performance Analysis ReportActivity 5: Design of trigger logic and decision rulesThe consultant will:* Define the methodology and tools used for ward-level trigger design, including modelling approach, statistical or hydrological methods, validation techniques, and data processing steps; * Develop clear and objective trigger logic and decision rules (e.g. IF–THEN statements) linking forecast probabilities and impact thresholds to trigger activation; * Provide technical recommendations on trigger performance and uncertainty. * Identify and document indicative categories of early actions that are technically compatible with the proposed trigger thresholds and forecasting lead times, based on nationally endorsed anticipatory action standards and historical flood impact evidence in Bangladesh, with a focus on alignment between trigger activation timing and feasible windows for action. This will complement HI-led decision-making processes and CRA outputs, including in cases where CRA findings are pending or incomplete. * Deliverable: Forecast-Based Trigger Matrix (ward-level, SOP-ready)Activity 6: Validation and final documentationThe consultant will:* Support technical validation of the IBF model and trigger mechanism through consultations with relevant stakeholders and a presentation workshop. * Consolidate all outputs into a final technical report documenting methodology, assumptions, limitations, uncertainty, indicative categories of early actions and validation feedback. * Deliverable: Final Consolidated Technical Report1. ASSUMPTIONS AND OUT-OF-SCOPE BOUNDARIESThis consultancy focuses on the technical development of an impact-based flood forecasting model and trigger mechanism.The following elements are explicitly outside the scope of this assignment and remain the responsibility of Handicap International and its partners:* Operational feasibility analysis and delivery planning * Selection, design, or costing of anticipatory actions * Market assessments and delivery modalities * Cost-effectiveness or cost–benefit analysis * Institutional readiness, governance arrangements, and implementation planningThe consultant will base the IBF model and trigger design on secondary datasets as well as programmatic parameters, priority impacts, geographic scope, and Community Risk Assessment findings defined and provided by HI where available.For details, please see the Terms of ReferenceHOW TO APPLYApplication Process:HI encourages applications from qualified women and persons with disabilities or chronic illnesses. HI is committed to equal opportunities for all qualified applicants, regardless of nationality, gender, religion, ethnicity, or disability status.Interested candidates shall submit their application no later than 29 March, 2026 (11:59 PM) to: 📧 [email protected] the subject line: “Development of a Locally Led Forecast-Based Flood Early Warning Trigger System for Anticipatory Action”, Ref: PD-DHAK-00670.1. DOCUMENTS TO INCLUDEApplicants shall submit the following documents:Technical proposal (maximum 5 pages), including:* Understanding of the Terms of Reference. * Proposed methodological approach for IBF model and trigger development. * Indicative workplan and timeline.Curriculum Vitae (CV) of the consultant or proposed key expert(s), highlighting relevant qualifications and experience.Cover letter summarising suitability for the assignment.Financial proposal, including:* Total lump-sum amount for the assignment (inclusive of all costs and taxes); * A detailed cost breakdown, including consultant fees (daily rate × number of days) and estimated operational costs (travel, communication, etc.).Supporting documents, such as:* References or certificates of completion for similar assignments (where available).Additional requirements* The proposed budget must be inclusive of all costs, including professional fees, accommodation, travel, taxes, and other expenses; * Payments will be made by bank transfer only, upon acceptance of deliverables; * Advance payments will not be provided; * At contracting stage, the selected consultant will be required to comply with all applicable professional, tax, and social obligations; * The consultant is responsible for their own logistics and security during the assignment.Incomplete applications will be considered administratively non-compliant and will not be evaluated further.1. SUBMISSION OF APPLICATIONS* If the applicant is a company, they must also provide the following documents: Company profile(s), Documentation of legal status, including registration as a company (Updated Trade License, Bin, TIN). Individual also need submit these documents where those are applicable.* Last TAX Submission Copy (Mandatory for Both Individual and Firm)* Bank Solvency Certificate (optional for both individuals and companies)* Insurance certificate (optional for both individuals and companies)* Quoted price should include VAT and TAX following government rules. If any amount is excluding VAT and TAX, it should be shown with a necessary breakdown.* Payment conditions should be clearly mentioned in the financial offer.* Bank details, including the name of the account, bank name, branch, swift code, etc., must be provided.* Proposals must be submitted in BDT.For details, please see the Terms of Reference